SITREP 10/26/24: Zelensky Begs Grid-Strike Trade as ‘Dark Winter’ Looms

The most interesting Ukrainian news of the past week was Zelensky’s sudden floating of a ‘compromise’ wherein both Russia and Ukraine would stop attacking each other’s energy grids.

Simplicius Oct 27, 2024

What’s most eye-opening about this is it seems to reveal the actual true purpose behind Ukraine’s campaign of the past year or so of striking Russian oil refineries, etc. Rather than aimed at actually crippling Russia’s infrastructure—an unrealistic proposal—it seems the whole time to have been aimed at desperately stopping Russia from crippling Ukraine’s infrastructure and plunging the country into the stone age, as many have expected to happen this coming winter.

Zelensky plainly states:

Zelensky, in an interview with the Financial Times, said that he wants to offer Russia… stop firing at each other’s energy facilities-well, before winter. It looks like this is the beginning of his “peace plan”. Earlier, he made similar statements before the invasion of the Kursk region. It seems that in Kiev they are completely disconnected from reality – they believe in their propaganda and see themselves as the navel of the earth.

now the truth comes out. strikes on russian infrastructure were all about getting russia to stop finishing off ukraine’s entire energy industry.

But here’s where we can tie the threads together.

In the aftermath of the BRICS summit, Putin gave a short interview wherein he restated Russia’s current position on negotiations, with a noteworthy detail (second statement from the actual summit also included below):

First, he states that Russia is ready to negotiate based on current realities. Translation: this means the currently controlled territories are non-negotiable. Putin reaffirms this by again openly stating that on this particular issue there will be no concessions made nor any “exchanges”. The exchanges is clearly in reference to Zelensky’s previously-voiced plan to “exchange” the Kursk territories for Russian-controlled territories in the Donbass.

However, Putin then goes on to surprisingly say he’s open to some “reasonable” compromises—but what could those possibly be?

One clue is offered in this newly published but unverified text:

“Secret Chancellery” (Taynaya kantselyariya):

“According to our information, the Kremlin is discussing the format and date of the publication of a new ultimatum to Ukraine to begin the negotiation process and discuss detailed points of the peace track with the West.

Putin will personally voice a new proposal to stop the conflict in Ukraine after the US presidential elections, and two different versions of the text are being prepared. One text is for Trump’s victory.

He will be offered a relatively soft version, which will preserve a certain amount of room for maneuver for the Republican (in particular, on the issue of the sanitary zone and demilitarization of Ukraine – these aspects can be quite flexible). The second text is for Kamala Harris’ victory.

The Democrat will be given a tough ultimatum (according to our information, in addition to the withdrawal of troops from 4 new regions, demilitarization and denazification, Ukraine will be required to create a large sanitary zone along the border perimeter, 150-200 km, where no military infrastructure will be allowed).

The Kremlin is strengthening its negotiating positions by playing the “Korean card”. Earlier, we also predicted that if the Ukrainian conflict continues, the likelihood of signing an agreement with Iran similar to the DPRK is growing. This measure will have to limit the US capabilities in relation to Tehran.

Considering the fact that Russia and NATO do not want to enter into direct confrontation with each other, the parties will look for hybrid response options in different regions of the world.

This is why the risk of activating the “Transnistrian card” is growing: each side will try to get as many chips as possible before the final game. Thus, the Ukrainian story is becoming the culmination of the geopolitical confrontation at the current stage.”

I think such an ultimatum can be voiced by Putin, but I think that neither the West nor the Ukrainian government will be able to agree to such conditions. Even considering that neither the West nor Ukraine will comply with this, having accepted it. The West will not agree to this, even considering such peace as a respite for further rearmament in order to continue the war with Russia.

The very fact of accepting Russia’s conditions would mean the West’s refusal to play the role of hegemon in the world. There are no grounds for this. The West has still not been defeated by anyone. In turn, Russia cannot agree to less. Russia will never agree to the West’s militarization of Ukraine. Therefore, Russia’s peace plans are unfeasible and the war will continue until Russia’s complete victory in Ukraine.

According to them, Putin will offer Trump a ‘softer’ negotiating position in order for Trump to save face and be able to stop the war on slightly more favorable conditions, while Kamala would be offered what sounds mostly like the Istanbul deal.

In both cases the non-negotiables appear to be that: Russia keeps all four new regions—Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye, Kherson. But there is potentially flexibility on how deep the demilitarization goes and how big the “buffer zone” on the northern border would be.

Many will say this sounds completely bogus, and you’re well within your right. But recall the video I just posted where Putin himself openly states he’s willing to make “reasonable compromises”—so isn’t that what this sounds like?

However, we can’t necessarily take these things at face value. Recall that Russia is under some pressure—even if it may not be genuine—by allies to seek peace at all times. Even during the BRICS conference major allies like China expressed their wish for Russia to seek a peaceful resolution; however those vocalizations may very well be performative in nature. Everyone knows they must put on a facade and appear to outwardly seek peace even if the true aims are more maximalist.

So in this case I still suspect that Putin may be playing the accommodating peace-maker when in actuality he knows full well that the terms cannot possibly be met by Ukraine. In short, it’s the classic poison pill offer meant to give the appearance of genuine effort when in reality there’s little chance of acceptance. Why would there be little such chance? I’ve explained many times before: because the terms surrounding just the issue of the four regions themselves are extremely unrealistic for Ukraine to abide by: they would require Ukraine to fully abandon control of both Kherson city on the right bank of the Dnieper and Zaporozhye city, a massive industrial center nearing 1 million population in size. It is simply unimaginable that there exists a political process in the Ukrainian state that would somehow realistically allow such an unprecedented concession. Hell, Zelensky still as of this week even clings to 1991 borders as a red line, let alone this.

But that’s where another interesting aspect comes in: there were some signs that the long ago discussed plan to replace Zelensky with Zaluzhny could still be in play. Last week’s Daily Telegraph article made a big deal about Zaluzhny having changed his tone surrounding the reclaiming of lost territories. From the article:

General Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s ambassador to Britain and a former commander-in-chief of its armed forces, this week hinted that Ukraine could accept a peace deal that saw it give up some of its land to Russia.

Asked in London on Thursday if he could imagine a victory without getting all the lost territory back, he said: “I didn’t mention territories. I mentioned safety, security, and the feeling of being in one’s own home.

That is a subtle, but profound shift in official rhetoric which previously insisted on no peace until all of Ukraine was reclaimed.

That means when the moment comes, if Zelensky is not being amenable, he will be replaced with the guy that is. However, that could still be a very long way’s away as it’s difficult to do that in a fast kinetic way, but rather more realistic putting pressure on Zelensky to hold an official election at which point Zaluzhny would be brought in and win in a landslide…READ THE REST HERE:

SITREP 10/26/24: Zelensky Begs Grid-Strike Trade as ‘Dark Winter’ Looms