ISRAEL – IRAN STANDOFF HEATING UP

* https://tinyurl.com/bndty*

* The Sunday Times December 11, 2005*

* Headline: Israel readies forces for strike on nuclear Iran*

* [I will pull some lines out of the article – and add what I read
between the lines.]*

* ISRAEL’S armed forces have been ordered by Ariel Sharon, the
prime minister, to be ready by the end of March for possible strikes on
secret uranium enrichment sites in Iran, military sources have revealed.*

* [March – smarch – later in the article you will see that they are
ready now.]*

* [Why are military sources revealing they will be ready in March.
– War is always misdirection. If you are going to strike sooner – make
the enemy think that you are going to strike later. Anyway – that is
what Iran might think – that Israel is doing.]*

* Israeli intelligence warned the government that Iran was
operating enrichment facilities…*

* [That view is also my view – that Iran is already operating them.]*

* Iran’s stand-off with the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) over nuclear inspections …*

* [Stand-off on inspections because Iran does not want the IAEA to
see that they are operating the fuel facilities.]*

* … are causing mounting concern.*

* [Lots of things are causing Israel mounting concern.*

* Weapon shipments by Russia to Iran. Weapon shipments by Russia to
Syria. Weapon shipments by Iran to Hezbollah. Weapon shipments by Syria
to Hezbollah.*

* Some of it may even be concerning George. Is any of it concerning
you?]*

* The crisis is set to come to a head in early March, when Mohamed
El-Baradei, the head of the IAEA, will present his next report on Iran.*

* [Everyone is talking about March. I will examine this point later.]*

* El-Baradei, who received the Nobel peace prize yesterday, warned
that the world was “losing patience” with Iran.*

* A senior White House source said the threat of a nuclear Iran was
moving to the top of the international agenda …*

* [It has been on the top of Israel’s agenda for a long time. It
has been on the top of my agenda for a long time. The question is –
where is it on your agenda?]*

* and the issue now was: “What next?” That question would have to
be answered in the next few months, he said.*

* [Like the magician – always misdirection – ‘in a few months’ ‘in
a few months’ ‘in a few months’]*

* Defense sources in Israel believe the end of March to be the
“point of no return” after which Iran will have the technical expertise
to enrich uranium in sufficient quantities to build a nuclear warhead in
two to four years.*

* [‘in a few months’ ‘the end of March’ or in a few years – or as
Condi said – in ten years.*

* But think about this – their scientists and PhDs aren’t dumb.
They all know how to do it. Any Ph.D. graduate physicist in the field of
nuclear weaponry – now knows how to do it.*

* Four years. The US started from scratch in 1941 and built one by
1945 when no one had ever done it before. But Iran has been working on
it for years. They just need the fuel. They have demonstrated that they
have perfected the missiles.*

* Do you believe Condi when she says ten years – or Nobel peace
prize winner El-Baradei, who is the head of the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) and who says that when it Iran gets the full fuel
cycle they will have the bomb within two or three months.]*

* Sharon warned recently. “We have the ability to deal with this
and we’re making all the necessary preparations to be ready for such a
situation.”*

* [So – what would be that ability? We have been told for months –
that the previous method used on Iraq – would not work.*

* We have been told for months – that Israeli planes can’t fly that
far.*

* We have been told for months – that the new Israeli subs won’t be
available for years.*

* Yet Sharon says – he has the ability. Do you think?]*

* The order to prepare for a possible attack went through the
Israeli defense ministry to the chief of staff. Sources inside special
forces command confirmed that “G” readiness – the highest stage – for an
operation was announced last week.*

* [Get that. “G” readiness – last week. Not in March. Not weeks
from now. Last week.]*

* Israeli intelligence has concluded (Iran) is deceiving the world
and has no intention of giving up what it believes is its right to
develop nuclear weapons.*

* Cross-border operations and signal intelligence from a base
established by the Israelis in northern Iraq are said to have identified
a number of Iranian uranium enrichment sites unknown to the IAEA.*

* Since Israel destroyed the Osirak nuclear reactor in Iraq in
1981, “it has been understood that the lesson is, don’t have one site,
have 50 sites”, a White House source said.*

* [Yep, Iran learned Iraq’s lesson. So – does Israel think that it
has to take out 50 sites? Iran learned. The White House learned. You
think Israel didn’t learn?]*

* If a military operation is approved, Israel will use air and
ground forces against several nuclear targets in the hope of stalling
Tehran’s nuclear programmed for years, according to Israeli military
sources.*

* [Yeah – invade Iran with Israel’s army. Now – how likely is that?
And they ‘hope’ – did you get that – ‘hope’ – you think maybe?]*

* It is believed Israel would call on its top special forces
brigade, Unit 262 – the equivalent of the SAS – and the F-15I strategic
69 Squadron, which can strike Iran and return to Israel without refueling.*

* [This is new! Israeli planes that can strike Iran without
refueling. Who would have ever thought. (Iran maybe?) And here we have
been told the opposite – and have been told the opposite – and have been
told the opposite. “Surprise, surprise, surprise”, as Gomer Pyle would say.*

* Now – I want to ask you one more question – “What kind of cream
puffs – or water balloons do you think those planes might be carrying?
Sharon says he has the tools – there is only one tool that I know of
that the US Pentagon thinks will take out those deep bunkers on the
‘white road’ that I told you about last time.]*

* “If we opt for the military strike,” said a source, “it must be
not less than 100% successful. It will resemble the destruction of the
Egyptian air force in three hours in June 1967.”*

* [100% – hmmm – and in three hours – that sounds like a little
more than ‘hoping’. Now then – just how many water balloons would that
take?]*

* [Revelation 18:19 And they cast dust on their heads, and cried,
weeping and wailing, saying, Alas, alas that great city… for in one
hour is she made desolate.*

* Now – how could that be?]*

* [From another news source:*

* In June 2002, former State Department and Pentagon officials
confirmed that the U.S. Navy observed Israeli missile tests in the
Indian Ocean in 2000, and that the Dolphin-class vessels have been
fitted with nuclear-capable cruise missiles of a new design.*

* In October 2003, unidentified senior U.S. and Israeli officials
were quoted as saying that Israel had successfully modified nuclear
warheads to fit its Harpoon missiles.]*

* The March deadline set for military readiness also stems from
fears that Iran is improving its own intelligence-gathering capability.*

* [March, March, March – well yes – they did say a few paragraphs
back – that they had gotten their marching orders – and were ready –
last week.]*

* In October it launched its first satellite, the Sinah-1, which
was carried by a Russian space launcher.*

* [As George would say – “My good friends – the Russians.”]*

* “The Iranians’ space programmed is a matter of deep concern to
us,” said an Israeli defense source. “If and when we launch an attack on
several Iranian targets, the last thing we need is Iranian early warning
received by satellite.”*

* [Now think about this. Where would the satellite be seeing the
launch come from? Couldn’t be the Missiles in Israel that have been
demonstrated to be able to go that far? Now there would be a tool for
Sharon.]*

* Russia last week signed an estimated $1 billion contract – its
largest since 2000 – to sell Iran advanced Tor-M1 systems capable of
destroying guided missiles and laser-guided bombs from aircraft.*

* “Once the Iranians get the Tor-M1, it will make our life much
more difficult,” said an Israeli air force source. “The installation of
this system can be relatively quick and we can’t waste time on this one.”*

* [Relatively quick. How quick do you think that is? Say the big
Russian planes leave Russia – when – (they already have some of these
things ready to move at a moments notice – they don’t all have to be
designed and built) and they arrive in Iran with Russian technicians –
how soon could they be set up? In fact Russian manned missile intercept
operations are already set up in Iran. That is something I told you
about weeks ago.]*

* The date set for possible Israeli strikes on Iran also coincides
with Israel ‘s general election on March 28, prompting speculation that
Sharon may be saber-rattling for votes.*

* [March, March, March – the date set – we should almost send out
engraved invitations. Unfortunately, I think the couple is about to elope.]*

* Benjamin Netanyahu, the frontrunner to lead Likud into the
elections, said that if Sharon did not act against Iran, “then when I
form the new Israeli government, we’ll do what we did in the past
against Saddam’s reactor, which gave us 20 years of tranquility”.*

* [What we have here – are two very experienced generals both of
which have a long standing record of making audacious moves. No need to
wait for Netanyahu.]*

* [The following is in the same story – and key to the same
upcoming event.]*

* TEHRAN MINISTER MET MILITANTS BEFORE NEW OFFENSIVE*

* Iran’s foreign minister met leading figures from three Islamic
militant groups to co-ordinate a united front against Israel days before
a recent escalation of attacks against Israeli targets*

* The minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, held talks with leaders of
Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah in Damascus on November 15.*

* [There are about 10 somewhat substantial terrorist groups known
by name. The top four are:*

* Fatah (the official arm of the PLA)*

* Hamas (the most active group and well funded group that wants to
replace Fatah politically and that also does social work in Palestine)*

* Islamic Jihad (active group that likes to take credit for lots of
events)*

* Hezbollah (the biggest and best equipped, and most funded by Iran
– that has never been really let loose.)]*

* Seven days after the talks, Hezbollah fired a volley of rockets
and mortars at Israeli targets, sparking the fiercest fighting between
the two sides since … five years ago.*

* ————– *
* end of article*

* As I discussed last time. I think this is the way it will go.*

* Israel is ready to go – at any moment. Won’t want to show any
more preparation – so as not to telegraph punch – by satellite or however.*

* Iran is concerned that Israel may go at anytime – and that it
won’t wait until Iran sort of tells it to – with the referral to the UN
Security Council, the oil bourse thing against the US, or even the EU
tick-off on starting Dec 21st.*

* Nope – the whole key – from Iran’s point of view is to get in the
first lick – if Israel isn’t going to wait for them to build the bomb.*

* Well, not directly by Iran – but let Hezbollah do it. Then Israel
will retaliate – and Russia will wipe Israel. If you have a better plan
– they would like to hear about it.*

* So, it comes down to – when will Hezbollah be let loose – or
break loose.*

* The smaller the organization – the more easily these decisions
are made. Hezbollah is having trouble getting the keys to the car –
(that is to say the missile launch codes – of the about 75 significant
missiles that it has gotten from Iran – although they say they have more
than 10,000 smaller missiles ) but they want to get to the party so
badly – that they may be willing to just walk with what they have got.*

* March, March, March – everyone says wait for the prom in March –
but someone else may ask the Queen out – and Hezbollah won’t win the
crown in Palestine – if they diddle much longer. Best to sneak in / out
early. Say when everyone is going to be somewhat preoccupied with their
own celebrating in the next few weeks.*

* Nah – these guys wouldn’t think like that. They wouldn’t ever
want to poop on someone else’s parade – would they?*

* Same old story – that I have told for years. The only difference
now is that so many knowledgeable people are no longer saying ‘if’ – but
are now asking ‘when’.*

* I get notes from departing readers who remind me of the story –
about the guy who was always reading about smoking causing cancer.*

* He complained to the doctor that it was worrying him so much that
he couldn’t sleep.*

* The cure, said the doctor, was for him to quit reading, and so he
did and slept like a baby.*

* So for those leaving – I bid thee farewell and*

* Sweet dreams.*

* Peace and love, Bruce

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