Jay Bonnar’s anecdote is statistically impossible if the COVID vaccines are safe

Jay lost 15 of his friends who all “died suddenly.” All were vaccinated. Four dropped dead within 24 hours of the shot. 3 of the 4 were ~30 years old, perfectly healthy before their death. Whoa.

Steve Kirsch Newsletter – Aug 7, 2023

Executive summary

Most people who call themselves “scientists” are dismissive of anecdotes, especially if the numbers are small (such as less than 20). They are fond of educating people that “the plural of anecdote is anecdotes, not data.”

This is simply untrue.

A single, independently-verifiable anecdote can be extremely powerful. It can totally destroy the scientific consensus and prove beyond any reasonable doubt that the CDC is lying.

I’m going to show you an example of this in this article.

One guy whose verifiable story completely blows the “safe and effective” narrative.

I’ll show how we can apply various statistical analyses to Jay’s story to show convincingly that what Jay observed cannot happen by chance and cannot happen if the vaccines are as safe as the FDA claims.

The only way to explain Jay’s story is that the COVID vaccines are killing around 1 person per 1,000 doses as I’ve said before.

Jay’s story aligns with my estimate and is impossible if the vaccines are safe.

Jay’s story at a glance

1. Jay is a 57 year old sales executive in Seattle, WA
2. Jay has 7500 direct friends that he knows personally; he estimates 75% have taken the COVID vaccine: 5,625 vaxxed and 1,875 unvaxxed.
3. 0 unexpected deaths in Jay’s history prior to the vax rollout; this includes during COVID, but before the vaccine.
4. Since the COVID vaccines rolled out, Jay has lost 15 friends, all vaccinated, who died “unexpectedly.” None of his unvaccinated friends died.
5. 4 of his 15 friends who died died within 24 hours of their COVID vaccine. I’d call this a smoking gun. It’s a clue as to what might have killed them.
6. 3 of the 4 “same day” deaths were in people who were 30 years old
7. None of them had COVID at the time they died or just before they died. Everyone who got vaccinated and died had COVID at least once. Jay estimates his vaccinated friends are getting COVID at a rate easily 4X more than his unvaccinated friends.
8. Jay estimates he has roughly 7,500 friends (email contacts, LinkedIn contacts, etc). These are all direct relationships where Jay has spoken directly to that person.
9. Before the COVID vaccines rolled out, Jay had never, in his entire life, known anyone who died unexpectedly. This means when he heard of the death, he would react as “wow, that was totally unexpected.” So someone who is involved in a traffic accident isn’t unexpected because accidents happen. Someone who has a long history of heart disease who dies from heart disease isn’t unexpected. Someone who is very old dying from natural causes or an accident isn’t unexpected. An unexpected death means the person was fine the day before they died and then, was dead the next day. For example, a 20 year old who is totally fit dies in his sleep. Or a 40 year old develops a “turbo cancer” and dies a couple of months later.
10. Jay is the very first person I’ve talked to who personally knew more than 10 people who died unexpectedly and who was willing to disclose their names so that third party fact-checkers could verify the information was true. This makes his story unique. So Jay wasn’t cherry picked from thousands of anecdotes. He was simply the first person who spoke to me who had a large enough sample to be statistically interesting and who could reveal names so that his story could be verified.
11. However, even if I talked to everyone in the world, I wouldn’t be able to find anyone with Jay’s story if the vaccines were perfectly safe and not causing unexpected deaths (I’d have to chat with at least 2e21 people to find such a person which is 12 orders of magnitude more people than on planet Earth).

The interview

You can watch the interview with Jay here. I summarize all the key points below.

Key takeaways

The key takeaways are:

1. The COVID vaccine is killing people at the rate of 1 per 1,000 doses. Jay’s data is exactly aligned with this. There were 14,000 estimated doses among his vaccinated friends and 15 of them died unexpectedly.
2. The CDC and FDA are lying to you by claiming the COVID vaccine is safe (which means kills 1 in 1M). The probability the FDA is right is poisson.sf(14, .014)=

1.2e-40 which basically says there is no way the FDA is right (14,000 doses should yield .014 deaths per the FDA, and Jay observed 15; we have to subtract 1 because the survival function is >X rather than >=X).

3. There is no other way to explain away this data. For example, even if Jay is “more aware” of deaths now which accounts for the dramatic rise in unexpected deaths he observed post-vaccine, the sheer number of unexpected deaths Jay experienced relative to the size of his friend network make this an anecdote that cannot be dismissed with hand-waving arguments about heightened perception; it just means that one of the many mathematical analyses (rate before COVID vs. after COVID) could be attacked.
4. The rate of unexpected deaths is probably around 100X higher than it was before the COVID vaccines (which was very small). Virtually all the increase in this category has been driven by the COVID vaccine. So, for example, in the last 55 years, Jay never had an unexpected death. But say he’s only noticing this since age 35. So 20 years, no events. Now he’s averaging 6 per year. So if he had one death in the 30 years, that would be a 120X increase.
5. Note that athlete sudden deaths increased by just 19X (538/yr vs. an average of 29 per year per GoodSciencing.com), but there was a baseline of 29 expected deaths per year; the number of unexpected deaths (where people just died unexpectedly was likely <20% per year so 6 deaths that were truly unexpected, so the net new number of unexpected deaths is 509/yr vs 6/year is nearly a 100X increase).
6. The only way to explain Jay’s evidence is that the COVID vaccine caused the 15 excess deaths.

Jay Bonnar saw a lot more black swans than is humanly possible if the CDC is telling the truth

Basically, Jay Bonnar saw 15 black swans recently even though the CDC claimed that black swans (people who died unexpectedly from the COVID vaccine) are really rare.

There is no way that the CDC can gaslight this by pointing to studies claiming that there are a small number of black swans out in the wild.

It happened and it’s verifiable: Jay saw 15 black swans.

In fact, it’s even worse. Four of the people who died were double-black swans (died on the same day as the vaccine); these are 180X rarer than just black swans!

The CDC essentially said the vaccines are safe which means they kill fewer than 1 person per million doses. So Jay’s vaccinated friends, with 14,000 doses, should have experienced .014 deaths according to the CDC, but instead ended up with over 1,000 times that number of deaths. The chance of that happening just by random “bad luck” to Jay is 1.2e-40 for Jay to see 15 or more black swans (this is given by the survival function poisson.sf(15-1, .014)).

Jay’s story is basically unexplainable if the CDC is telling the truth and the COVID vaccines are perfectly safe. \

The CDC is lying. The COVID vaccines are unsafe. It’s a mathematical certainty.

In short, Jay saw way too many black swans for us to believe the CDC that black swans are really as rare as they claim.

Anyone can verify his anecdote (because he lists all the names) and anyone can do the math.

Conversely, based on my estimates of 1 death per 1,000 doses, we get poisson.sf(14, 14)=0.42956328717262765 which means my explanation is perfectly reasonable whereas the FDA’s is statistically impossible.

If I’m wrong, simply explain how Jay could see so many black swans among his 7,500 friends.

How I met Jay

Jay subscribes to my Substack. He filled out a survey and I called him to verify his survey entry. It was then he mentioned his story to me.

Jay’s friends who have died

Died within 24 hours of COVID vaccination (4):

1. Scott Plutko, 53, – work colleague, SVP of Global Channels, Saviynt; talked of getting boosted “to do the right thing” and 24 hours later had a massive heart attack and dropped dead in front of a live audience in London during a tech presentation. Proof he died

2. Alexander Nuber, 30 y.o. Man, worked out at my gym, perfectly fit and  healthy. We spoke in person about how eager he was to get the C19 injection. He received it and four hours later dropped dead at home. Doctors were baffled. He died October 17, 2021. Here is his obituary. There is no mention that he died on the same day he was vaccinated. Are you surprised? The COVID vaccine is the killer that few people have enough courage to blame.

3. Zach Broten, 30, personal trainer, worked at my gym. Had a heart attack on the same day as the shot and died just days before his 31st birthday. He told other people at the gym he had just received the C19 injection.

4. Andrew Titus (nephew) – 28, perfectly healthy collegiate lacrosse athlete, died suddenly in sleep right after getting the shot; had received both injections and several boosters. Doctors were baffled as to the cause. Here’s his obituary. No mention he died on the day he got vaccinated

Other unexpected deaths (11)

1. Alejandrino Taculad (former father-in-law), 78, received injections and boosters. 60 days later was diagnosed with stage 4 lung cancer. Never smoked or drank alcohol a day in his life; died 90 days after getting the jab.
2. Matt Runte, 44, Seattle firefighter; I knew Mark through friends in the first-responder community. Mandated to get the jab. Was out for a jog and just dropped dead.
3. Jessica Wilson, early 30’s  – Seattle mom, my kids attended the same school where hers did; couldn’t volunteer as room mom w/out the jab per Gov Inslee mandate, blood clots in lungs weeks after injection and died suddenly one week later.
4. Dori Monson, 61, radio talk show host, met through friends – died of “cardiac event”; he was vaccinated and spoke of his regret for getting it prior to death.
5. Chloe Nuttbrock, 18, Mukilteo HS student – aneurysm, daughter of a friend/neighbor, vaccinated. Had migraines after covid vax. Died 1 week later.
6. Gabriel Jungmann, 20, of Bellevue – died suddenly while showering; vaccinated.
7. Chris Smith, 31, heart attack – XFL athlete, went to my church, vaccinated per league requirements.
8. Rachel Marshall, 42, owner of Rachel’s Ginger Beer – died suddenly (cardiac arrest). I was a customer at her shop (but stopped going after they required vaccines). Vocal vaccine and mask proponent.
9. David Black, 55, work colleague (Boeing), died suddenly (cardiac arrest); no known health problems; Boeing has mandatory vax requirement.
10. Steven Hahn, 54, church member, died suddenly and unexpectedly from “heart problems” – wife said he had been vaccinated. Nobody can explain this. No known health problems. Super-healthy guy.
11. Michael Howland, early 40’s, died from a heart attack just walking on the beach while on vacation in Cancun, Mexico with family, super fit. Triathlete. Company had a C19 injection mandate.

Injured (7)

• Rosalinda Taculad (former mother-in-law), 70, had a massive stroke just 1 week after her second injection. She is permanently disabled now; her husband Alejandrino died 120 days after his injections.

Continues …