Clarity After Iran Strike, as Israel Tries to Pivot to Nuclear Arc

Two days out from Iran’s seminal strike on Israel and some things are being clarified.

Simplicius https://simplicius76.substack.com
Oct 04, 2024

All the early claims of having shot everything down were slowly retracted, with more realistic headlines slowly taking their place as testament to the confusion behind the scenes.

Iranian missiles were able to overcome Israel’s multi-layered air defense, writes the magazine “Der Spiegel”. The publication notes that this time the missile attack was significantly more successful than the previous one in April, when Israel and its allies still managed to intercept 99 percent of Iranian missiles and drones. “They probably learned from the April attacks and chose ballistic missiles this time,” says military expert Fabian Hinz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

Videos like this one are hard to deny—watch the end to see major explosions at the site of whatever was hit:

(See video at source)

Alleged to be outside of Nevatim base:

(See video at source)

We’ve finally got some BDAs of the hits, though they do present uncertainty as to Iran’s true objectives.

Here’s a news report confirming one of the missiles landed outside the Mossad HQ:

But was it a miss, or a deliberate “message” sent?

There are two camps now: one claiming Iran cannot hit anything, the other that Iran deliberately avoided causing too much damage. There is some evidence for both.

Trump just released an interview where he confirmed—if he can be trusted—that Iran had previously told him in advance they would hit US assets during his term, but intentionally not cause any damage merely as a show of force—listen carefully: (Video at source)

This is quite normal in international relations.

But listen specifically to the last part of the video where Trump himself admits the missiles are “very accurate” but everyone in the media was shocked they missed—why would Iran’s “accurate missiles” miss an easy, fat target like the US base in question?

This gives us insight into Iran’s SOP, and we can thereby infer that Iran may have treated the present Israeli strike in a similar fashion. A hit near the Mossad HQ could merely be a message.

Now we have satellite BDAs of Nevatim base.

One hangar was hit which, in a previous satellite photo, had the tail of what looks like a fighter craft sticking out of it:

However, other hits appeared all over the place.

The area of the base hit was the “transport, tanker, surveillance, and recon” area, reportedly housing the 122nd Nachshon Squadron (EW/signals), not the fighter jet area where the famed F-35s are usually housed.

The area of the struck hangar is at the southeast portion of the image below:

Experts later identified 32 strike points from a wider 3m satellite view:

However, we do not seem to have satellite photos for the other sections in detail yet, nor for the other air bases potentially struck, the Hatzerim and Tel Nof airbases.

What’s most interesting is there was a brief controversy yesterday surrounding some jagged digital clouds apparently being ‘painted’ over Israeli bases, blocking the ability to assess damage. This was dismissed by experts as just ‘clouds’—though strangely this rarely seems to happen in Ukraine—but most strange of all was that both penetrated bases apparently had this cloudy ‘luck’:

READ FULL ARTICLE (this is just a stub!) HERE: Clarity After Iran Strike, as Israel Tries to Pivot to Nuclear Arc (substack.com) -video segments embedded at source link.